Last Week in Review: Is This the Bottom?

A Look Ahead: Big Job Losses Seen in April

View: Exercises to Do at Home and Keep in Shape

Home loan rates continue to hover near all-time lows, but there are three reasons why they should have improved but didn't.

Let's take a look at some of the "Bond-friendly" news from this week that was unable to push mortgage-backed security (MBS) prices higher and home loan rates lower.

1. Unemployment: The unemployment line is growing. This past week another 3.85 million people filed for unemployment insurance, bringing the total to a staggering 30,000,000 since mid-March. Bonds embrace bad news, and this was bad news.
2. Core PCE: The Federal Reserve's favorite gauge on consumer inflation, the Core Personal Expenditure Index (PCE), was reported at -0.1%, well beneath expectations. Inflation is like the tide that rises all boats -- when it declines, like we are seeing, rates typically decline as well. That did not happen this week.
3. Monetary Policy Statement: This past week, the Federal Reserve issued their Monetary Policy Statement and shared that they will continue purchasing MBS "to support smooth market functioning." Bonds and home loan rates were unable to improve further despite the Fed's continued buying commitment.

What does this tell us? Have we reached the "bottom" in rates? Quite possibly.

Stocks ended April up 12%, the best month since the '80s. At the same time, the 10-year Note yield, a benchmark for longer-term rates, has been unable to move convincingly beneath .60%. Both Stocks and the 10-year Note yield are forward-looking and appear, at the moment, to be ignoring the awful economic numbers that continue to roll in.

Bottom line: For those who have an opportunity to lock in a home loan rate, now is an incredible time. It's not yet clear that once our economy starts re-opening that rates will stay near current levels. If this week was any gauge, it is suggesting they won't.

If you or someone you know has questions about home loans, give me a call. I'd be happy to help.

This coming week brings the most important economic reading for the month -- the April Non-Farm Payrolls or Jobs Report.

March Non-Farm Payrolls saw 701,000 jobs lost after what was the strongest labor market in 50 years in February, before the coronavirus outbreak took place.

Earnings season will continue though most of the big names have already reported. The markets will continue to be impacted by the daily coronavirus headlines, and how several states have begun to reopen and many others are loosening guidelines.

Reports to Watch:

• On Monday, the ISM Service Index will be released.
• Thursday's Weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be closely watched for a decline in new claims.
• ADP Private Payrolls will be released on Wednesday followed by the government's Jobs Report on Friday.

Staying fit while stuck at home is easier than it may seem. A variety of resources exist to keep you in shape even if you can't get to the gym. A few tactics to stay strong and motivated are using bodyweight workouts, mixing up your routine, and maximizing flexibility.

Not everyone has a set of weights at home to use when the gym is unavailable. Luckily, you can use basic household items paired with your own body weight to get in a great workout. Here are a few of the easiest, most effective bodyweight exercises to maintain your fitness.

Pushups: Pushups activate your arms and back, but also force you to engage your core and leg muscles.

Side planks: With your body supported on one forearm and your obliques pulled up and in, your core will get in shape quickly.

Wall sits: Wall sits build up your quadriceps muscles and also activate your core and lower legs.

Don't be afraid to try something new. Online resources, whether they're a list of exercises or a video workout, are a great way to find new exercises. Search for "at-home workouts" and see what you find!

Finally, use the time at home to stretch and improve your flexibility. Online yoga videos are a great tool for stretching. Or, put on your favorite show and stretch a different muscle group every time a commercial comes on.

Stay fit at home by using bodyweight training, mixing up your workout routine, and focusing on flexibility. You'll keep your mental and physical health strong.

Sources: Shape, Inc